Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle

NCAR scientists Mausumi Dikpati (left), Peter Gilman,
and Giuliana de Toma examine results from a new computer
model of solar dynamics. (Photo by Carlye Calvin, UCAR)

BOULDER—The next sunspot cycle will be 30-50% stronger than the last one and begin as much as a year late, according to a breakthrough forecast using a computer model of solar dynamics developed by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Predicting the Sun’s cycles accurately, years in advance, will help societies plan for active bouts of solar storms, which can slow satellite orbits, disrupt communications, and bring down power systems.